Wall Street Shorts Economists – Bloomberg.

A hilarious article highlighting that real-world investors do not find the “dynamic stochastic general equilibrium” theory useful in their investment strategies. This shows a stark contrast between the (possibly more rational) thinking of economists and how the market is truly structured.

I do not think it works so well, either. There are likely some simplifying assumptions that do not apply, perhaps the number one reason is that the players in the market are not quite rational, and that even if they were rational, their intelligence bounds prevent them from making near-optimal decisions.

Another key, and more important point is that the economy has no equilibrium to speak of. In my experience, the global market is ever expanding, and becoming ever more complex. That is not just an outcome of speculation as some think, although speculation plays a serious role in the chaotic behavior. In other words, it is evolving, the solution of which I will have to leave as an exercise to the reader presently.

Wall Street Shorts Economists – Bloomberg

Eray Özkural

Eray Özkural has obtained his PhD in computer engineering from Bilkent University, Ankara. He has a deep and long-running interest in human-level AI. His name appears in the acknowledgements of Marvin Minsky's The Emotion Machine. He has collaborated briefly with the founder of algorithmic information theory Ray Solomonoff, and in response to a challenge he posed, invented Heuristic Algorithmic Memory, which is a long-term memory design for general-purpose machine learning. Some other researchers have been inspired by HAM and call the approach "Bayesian Program Learning". He has designed a next-generation general-purpose machine learning architecture. He is the recipient of 2015 Kurzweil Best AGI Idea Award for his theoretical contributions to universal induction. He has previously invented an FPGA virtualization scheme for Global Supercomputing, Inc. which was internationally patented. He has also proposed a cryptocurrency called Cypher, and an energy based currency which can drive green energy proliferation. You may find his blog at https://log.examachine.net and some of his free software projects at https://github.com/examachine/.

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